Betting on Soccer is Different: Tips for the Moneyline ...
Betting on Soccer is Different: Tips for the Moneyline ...
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Some Parlay Math from an idiot who thought he could beat the system, but might help others projects
So a couple of things to say from the beginning. I am smart enough to use excel and do some math, which is to say I am not that smart, and I am stupid enough to think that I could somehow figure out a way to use parlays to get free money. Secondly, for some this is going to be super trivial stuff, and for other this isn't going to be worth anything. Regardless, I am putting it out there because you really never know when some random piece of math, or a random discovery/idea you had and threw away is the last piece of a puzzle for someone else. I had never bet on sports using a book and I knew very little about sports betting before this summer. One of my best friends bets quite a bit and I would pick up tid-bits from him all the time. He talked to me about parlays and having no idea what it was I looked into it. After a quick search and him explaining it some more, I figured it would be worth it to see what would happen if you bet every "leg" of a combination of different parlays. ( That is what I have been calling it myself, what I mean by a leg is lets say you are betting on two moneylines for a basketball game, there are four possible parlays, or legs, win win, lose lose, win lose, and lose win, each parlay would be a leg as I am calling it in the overall system). This is probably already sounding stupid, which it is. I settled on combining soccer with any regular sport like basketball, because its not uncommon to find games where all the odds are positive for the two teams winning and a draw. This meant a total of 6 parlays. What I did in Excel was pretty rudimentary. I calculated the decimal odds for each parlay. Then I chose an arbitrary amount of money I split between the 6 parlays, say 200$. 200$/6 was 33.3$. (33.33*the odds for the parlay)-200$=profit. Minus 200 because thats the total amount you have spent across the 6 bets. that profit number will always be negative because you will always lose money if you do this. Take that profit and divide by the odds of the parlay. That is how much money you need to add to the original 33.3$ to "maximize" your gain (what you will really be doing is minimizing your losses across the board). Once you do this for each leg, the actual amount that you bet will be different, the lower odds will require more and the higher odds will require less. using the new bet amount, multiply again by the odds, and subtract the total the new betting amounts, for your "profit". All of the profits should be the same number, and they will all be negative. This number is something you can find just from looking at the odds, I called it the "Parlay Goodness" number. The Parlay Goodness number tells you the percentage of your principle you will lose if you bet all the legs of a parlay. The equation I made assumes that you are using soccer + a regular sport with no draws, and assumes all the soccer odds are positive. As I am looking at my spreadsheet it would take a little to long to describe, so I will link it somehow if you are interested. The next obvious step on this path was to determine if I could remove a leg, or two legs, and have the operation still be profitable. Remove meaning not bet, this would lower the amount of overhead, but now leaves the hole open for you to lose because you did not bet a certain outcome. I tested 4 different situations. Two where I removed only one leg (5/6), and two where I removed two legs( 4/6). In the first 5/6 I removed the favorite. I should say that for this part of the story, I converted each of the parlay decimal odds into percentage odds, or the odds it would hit/win. When I removed the "favorite" I removed the leg of the parlay with the highest percentage odds. I did a different scenario using the least likely parlay to happen. The give and take here is that the favorite requires the largest bet size, but is "favored", so while your taking out more overhead, your leaving yourself open to not having bet the most "likey" scenario. When you remove the least likely, you don't really remove much overhead, because it was the one that required the lowest bet size. The same sort of thing was done for the 4/6, the two favorites were removed and the two least favorite removed. In order to see if any of these would be profitable over the long term, meaning say if you bet 100 times. I said that (win $/loss$) > (% of the time you lost/ % of the time you won) then you would make money. Where win $ means how much you win if the parlay hits one of the legs you bet, and loss $ is how much you lose if the outcome is one of the leg(s) you didn't bet. The percentage of the time you won was found by adding up those percentages of each leg I talked about earlier, subtracting that from the total percentage of each leg added up, dividing by the total percentage. Then doing 1-that number so it was how often you won not how often you lost, then multiplying by 100 for a %. That is the % of the time you should win, and 100-that is the % of the time you should lose. Throwing all that information into the aforementioned equation should tell you if you have found something interesting or not. If your actually interested I uploaded my spreadsheets into google. Its a mess, but you may find something you want. For most people this was a stupid post to read, sorry bro. For people who are actually good at excel, sorry bro. For everyone who is a real sports bettor, sorry bro. TLDR; I did some math because I am stupid. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DMzSSiwLurQGHTV8XAgXOaeDbHUk-n-view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KyWPmfE90yszfrRanJNFbUWsQQVb-l54/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qJW9-Dox_62ytA8FBltO_2GHOHLol3WQ/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QXO_FWEqUYgrPZ7ulShogJ5DID_pucm1/view?usp=sharing EDIT: I would like to add that if you could ever "insure" your bet so to speak, or bet against your self, as in bet a friend or your book that you would lose money, then you be able to use all this to make money.
Building an app that lets you bet with your friends
I recently built my first app for iOS and Android called WagerLab which lets you send and track bets with friends. I'd love to get some feedback on how I can improve it. I could also really use beta testers, so if anyone is interested in that, please shoot me a PM. Here's a link to the app: WagerLab - Ditch the bookie, bet with your friends I built it because I usually prefer to bet against my friends rather than a sportsbook when possible for simple bets, but usually find agreeing to terms/lines and tracking balances to be tedious. On WagerLab, you can browse upcoming lines, send a bet to a friend, and then keep track of the results which are reflected in your current balance with that friend (the two of you can reset your balance at any time). Right now, it supports spread bets on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, MLB, and most worldwide soccer leagues as well as an entertainment category where you can bet on politics, tv shows, awards, current events, etc. I'm hoping to add totals, moneyline, and parlay betting (without juice) in the near future. Thanks for reading! Let me know what you think.
Montreal Impact is +200 against FC Cincinnati, but why?
I know talking Major League Soccer isn't attractive, but every week I find extreme value. This week the Montreal Impact are a prime example. Montreal starts every year with more road games because of wintery weather. This year they're off to a 4-2-3 start. Not great, but not bad. They're heading to Cincinnati this weekend, a club that has a lot of issues. Cincinnati is 2-2-7 this season, with just one home win. On Bookmaker I'm seeing the Impact moneyline at +200. What am I missing? Cincinnati hasn't won in seven matches. Their last win was against a team that just allowed six goals and fired their manager. Either the books know something I don't, or that's a bad line that can be exploited with either a moneyline and/or draw no bet wager.
[Meta] Join us at BetCoin Sportsbook .. NBA, NHL, EPL lines live now !
Yesterday we had a very successful launch of the first sportsbook based entirely on GRLC. We offer multiple games from different leagues in which users can bet GRLC on point spreads and moneylines! Today's lines were just released ! Join us on discord (https://discord.gg/wWFGxc ) and set up your account at ( BetCoin.to ) to start betting now! We also organize community events including Superbowl squares, March madness, fantasy football , world cup soccer and more!
Hi all, This will serve as a beginner guide for those who are interested in starting to bet on football/soccer. Please feel free to add/comment/suggest any tips or tricks that can help newbies that you feel are necessary to the guide. Step 1: Pick your bookie and deposit money First of all you need to pick a bookie. A quick write-up can be found here. Some bookies offer first-deposit or other type of bonusses, however these do involve some requirements. If you are interested in a bonus, I suggest you google "YOUR BOOKIE deposit bonus" quick, to catch the most recent bonus. Next up, you deposit your money on to the bookie. IMPORTANT: Only bet with money you can afford to lose. There is no minimum/maximum to your bankroll. Play with what you are comfortable with. Step 2: Explanation of the odds There are three type of formats:
Fractional odds (UK): They show the pay-out for a successful bet in relation to the stake. Betting £1 at odds of 5/1 would return £6. You win £5 plus your stake of £1. Betting £1 at odds of 1/5 would return £1.20. You win 20p plus your stake of £1.
Decimal odds (Europe): They show an outcome equivalent to the decimal value of the fractional odds plus one. Odds of 6.00 means that betting €1 on Decimal 6.00 would return €6. Betting €1 on Decimal 6 would return €1.20.
American odds (US): Also known as Moneyline (ML). It will be either positive or negative: If they are shown with a + sign it means how much you would win on a £100 stake. If they are shown with a - sign it means how much you would have to stake to win £100. Betting £1 on odds +500 would return £6. Betting £1 on Us -500 would return £1.20
Step 3: What to bet on?/How to find value? You can bet on whatever you like really. Bookies offer many types of markets (1X2, corner kicks, total amount of goals,...). The more you know about a team or league, the better capable you are of betting on it. If you want to be succesfull on the long-term, you need to find value. Here is a useful thread regarding the percentage chance of winning required for a bet to be value. Pretty much you need to find where you have an edge on the bookies. Let's run through it with a quick example: You are an expert in the Eredivisie (The Netherlands) and the game Excelsior - FC Twente is today. You notice that the odds for FC Twente to win are 2.00, meaning the bookies give them a 50% chance to win this game. However, you have done research to both teams and you yourself give FC Twente a 75% chance to win this game. Basically, the odds you give to the outcome are higher than the odds the bookie gives to the outcome. In your opinion, there is value to bet on Twente, so you bet on Twente to win.
What information could be useful for research: Standings, form, head-to-heads, home form, away form, goals scored, goals conceded, cards per game, injuries, suspensions, manager switches,... Pretty much everything can be useful to take into account. The trick is to give the right amount of importance to the right factors. If you bet on a team getting a clean sheet, goals conceded are more important than goals scored by the team.
Betting live compared to betting pre-match: Some people prefer betting live. Live betting gives you the advantage of knowing the actual line-ups and watching how the game goes. If a team that was an underdog pre-match is suddenly dominating the game, there is some value to be found in live betting. It depends on how much time you want to put into it.
Step 4: Bankroll Management How much to bet? Bankroll management is a crucial key to long-term success. The majority of successful betters use 1-5% of their bankroll per bet, depending on how certain they are. However, there is no real right or wrong answer. You need to watch this for yourself. But keep this in mind: Let's say you have a bankroll of €100. If you bet using 1%, you can make 100 bets. If you bet using 5%, you can only make 20 bets. If you have a bad case of variance/losses, using 1% is obviously safer. IMPORTANT: Do not chase losses. Once you get into a bad streak, it is important to keep bankroll management in order to not throw everything on one bet. Interesting tools/tips/tricks
Hope this guide can help starters in the world of betting on soccefootball. As mentioned before, please comment/add things that you feel are missing! Would be great to work together to create the best possible help to beginners :)
Could someone please explain soccer moneyline and spreads to me?
I understand the basics of sports betting but as I can gather, in soccer certain bets don't apply after regular time or if the game ends in OT. My question has to do with regular time vs overtime vs penalties vs who wins the game. What is the difference in spreads and ML when it comes to soccer? Are games that end in PKs considered a tie?
It's Derby Day in England with 7 games on the table. Leading the day off will be the North London Derby with Tottenham hosting Arsenal, and ending with the Merseyside Derby where Everton host city neighbors Liverpool.
English Premier League Matches 2/7/2015 Home vs Away 7:45 AM EST/4:45 PST Kickoff:
Need help with my first soccer bet for USA vs Paraguay tomorrow. 11/6/16
I undestand spreads and moneyline as I bet on NBA and NFL games. However soccefootball betting is another beast. What i dont get in soccer betting is when team A and team B are a PK and the final result ends in a tie does my intial bet get refunded? Also if i pick Moneyline for team A and the final score is a draw i lose that bet correct unless i bet moneyline Draw . Lastly if I bet draw no bet on team A a win yields me money however a draw results in my bet getting returned. Thanks for all the help and copa america and the euros are already kicking arse
Let's aggregate our Predictions, utilize the wisdom of the subreddit, and beat the sportsbooks
How about we crowdsource our own soccer prediction competition, starting with the Olympics? All we need to do is post lines, give our predictions, and let the games begin. I posted this in /sportsbook, but we could use this structure for any/all daily picks. Just gives us more concrete data about the community's predictions, that we could leverage collectively. Definitely can extend this beyond olympics, to any match. Rather than commenting “I like Australia with the moneyline” we make numeric/percentage predictions, aggregate, and see how our collective predictions would function using the Kelly Criterion. Example: Will Australia defeat Canada in tomorrow’s Women’s soccer match? My prediction: Australia only has a 33% chance of winning. Initial odds found here: http://www.oddsportal.com/socceworld/olympic-games-women/ , and first day’s events found here:
Will Sweden win their first match?
Will Australia win their first match?
Will Brazil win their first match?
Will Germany win their first match?
Will USA win their first match?
Let’s start leveraging the wisdom of the crowd. We’re all here to predict, to discuss, and to analyze our own positions, may as well see if we could beat the sportsbooks together. Here’s the initial spreadsheet I’m working with: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F01gpHdnQ89FrFmad382fbASrGs7T0Q1wWD6rPxjeTA/edit?usp=sharing We could even make this into a community competition and see which of us makes the most accurate projections, and at the very least we’re crowdsourcing some potentially valuable data that will help us all. Also, whoever's the king or queen of soccer betting will be able to prove it to the rest of the community, further legitimizing their analysis. Can finally distill who the experts among us are. I see no downside of simply listing predictions. Thoughts? Any takers?
This screenshot is the ESPN app which shows all games tonight, always accompanied with the moneyline odds on the right. It appears as if the favorites are always shown, so when I see NYR +105 as the favorite this means that PIT is +110 or higher correct? Is this normal to see both teams on the positive side for the moneyline? I'm new to sports betting, but I think you see this sometimes in soccer when a draw is a likely result, but why a hockey playoff game?
Hey /SoccerBetting !!! So this is the last week I'll be using last seasons data, as from week 7 I will be switching to this season's data only!!! So this week I have updated the spreadsheet in the hope of trying to make it a little more user friendly!!! How to read the new layout is as follows:
For Moneyline/European Handicaps (EH)/ Highest Scoring Half (HSH) the line reads as 1/X/2 for the HSH that is 1st/X/2nd
EH -1HT = -1 Home Team (this will be the same as Away Team +1 for the draw and Away Team result...bookie dependant)
EH -1AT = -1 Away Team (this will be the same as Home Team +1 for the Draw and Home Team result...bookie dependant)
For the Ove Under Markets....it is exactly as that first will be the Over odds second will be the Under odds (same for BTTS yes first no second)
£57 returns £1099.82 As for the £5-500 rolling acca I am putting the £184.32 on Liverpool vs Everton O10 Corners @1.61 this returns £296.76 Have fun everyone P.S. Please give me some feedback on the new layout! Edit: well Fuck -.- 10 corners only one more needed .... I'll start a new acca next week I reckon.
I dunno if any of you guys bet on North American soccer but I do it every week (not saying I'm successful!) so I thought I'd start a thread this week and open up some discussion on the matter. New York @ Toronto Dax McCarty is out...that leaves the Red Bulls with a gaping hole in their midfield. The league's most efficient passer will be sidelined with a quad injury. RBNY have only won in Toronto twice. They'll also be playing their 4th game in 14 days. Meanwhile Toronto will be playing their 3rd in 7, however the midweek home match against Montreal was largely a group of secondary players and most of the starters should be fresh. I like some of the things TFC have been doing lately, especially at home, but they'll have to be able to prevent the late game mental lapses. I'm saying Toronto wins 2-1. Bet is: Toronto to win (Pick Em) & Toronto to score first (LOSS)(LOSS) Goddamn Toronto, you had the late game mental lapse. Chicago @ Montreal The Impact have been skidding a bit recently now winless in 3 counting the ACC game this past wednesday. That team was also largely a youth squad. Di Vaio should be fresh and Paponi got a run out at Toronto and he should be able to start finding his legs. This game almost seems too easily set up for MTL and I hate that. Fire are winless on the road and I have to think that continues here. I'll take Montreal...2-0. Bet is: Montreal (on the Moneyline) WIN Perfect score bet too :) DC @ Columbus DC United are 0-4-1 in Columbus since 2007, DeRo has been ineffective at best thus far this season, now Chris Pontius is out with an injury. DC looked full of holes last week home to Philly and while I don't think Columbus has the same level of attack that Philly does, but I think Columbus SHoULD be able to get the job done here. Bet is: Columbus (on the Moneyline) --C'bus is up 3-0 at Half, I'm gonna call this a win now Philadelphia @ New England Revolution haven't won since week 1, and looked embarrassed after the thrashing they took at NY last week. Philly on the other hand looked pretty damn good against DC. New England has been shut out in 4 of 6 matches, Union has scored at least 1 goal in all their games, one of which was against against New England. Toledo is the ref...dude has already called 5 penalties in 4 games this season. He's nuts and frankly I think he likes to be the center of attention. I have no idea who wins or who comes up on the good side of the ref. Bet is: Total OVER 2.5 LOSS Damnit!! 2-0 New England, I really REALLY thought Philly or Jack Mac would snag at least 1 to make it close. Lastly, I'll take Sporting Kansas City (on the Moneyline) (LOSS) wow...I'm gonna have to see the highlites, 2-2 at half Portland takes it in the 2nd, it's VERY tough to win at SKC. Good on ya Timbers.
Betting on Germany (+130) or Argentina (+255) lost, even though the Germans ended up winning in extra time. 2. Betting the Two-Way Moneyline. Another way of betting soccer is taking the two-way moneyline, which is offered in two simple ways: Double Chance and Draw No Bet. Both are graded solely on 90 minutes of regulation. Boxing betting: Ways to bet Access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list of today's sports betting odds and lines. 2-way betting: Each individual bout can simply be wagered upon picking a straight-up winner, similar to a moneyline bet in the other major sports, with a favorite and an underdog. 3-way betting: Each individual... Unlike in the large majority of other sports, ties (“draws” in soccer terms) are extremely common due to the lower-scoring nature of the game. In fact, draws occur so often in soccer that three-way moneyline betting is the most standard and popular way to bet on a soccer match. However, there are many other ways to bet on soccer as well. If you’re searching for a more comprehensive guide to the different ways you can bet on soccer, check out our guide to the basics of soccer betting. The Three-Way Moneyline Unlike the NFL, where ties are extremely rare, or other sports where ties are not possible, a tie (or draw) in soccer is commonplace. Soccer Moneyline Betting Tips. Moneyline betting is the most widely available form of betting. If you are betting on a match from a big event or a big league, you will likely find a great number of different money lines from online betting sites. You should utilize their availability and search for those money lines that you think will provide ...
3-Way Betting Explained with Examples (also known as 1x2 ...
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